驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型

为准确模拟驾驶人跟车行为，提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model，HMM)的驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型。建立描述驾驶意愿的HMM模型，模拟驾驶人感知过程，获得期望的车间距；预测模块模拟驾驶人根据交通环境和自身生理、心理状态预测车辆未来轨迹，即决策过程；优化模块描述驾驶人为使预测的车辆轨迹跟踪上期望的车辆间距而采取的操控汽车的执行动作，即操控过程。上述3个模块的滚动过程实现了对驾驶人跟车行为的模拟。利用自然驾驶数据进行算例分析，结果表明，本文模型预测车间距平均误差仅为1.47%，证明了所建模型的有效性及准确性。本文为驾驶行为建模方法的理论研究和应用拓宽了思路。     

水下滑翔机器鱼机构设计与运动性能分析

本文设计了一种具有仿生尾鳍的水下滑翔机器人混合驱动机构,通过内部质量块的平移、旋转、仿生尾鳍的偏置以及外部皮囊的伸缩可实现滑翔机器人的小半径三维螺旋运动。同时,建立了水下滑翔机器鱼的水动力学模型,得到了稳态螺旋运动方程,给出了俯仰调节机构质心位置、尾鳍角、横滚调节机构质心旋转角与转弯半径和垂直速度之间的关系,以及每种稳态螺旋运动所对应的输出变量初值的取值范围。所得结果表明,在俯仰调节、浮力调节、横滚调节和尾鳍驱动的共同作用下,水下滑翔机器鱼可以获得更小的转弯半径,因而机动性更好。所设计的水下滑翔机器鱼在河流和湖泊等环境的水质监测、水下柱形区域取样等领域具有潜在的应用价值。     

基于改进云模型的地铁站行人拥挤辨识方法

为降低城市地铁站内行人拥挤识别时多指标和多等级带来的不确定性和模糊性,采用改进云模型构建行人拥挤状态辨识模型。基于AHP-熵权法标定指标权重和行人拥挤状态等级,以标定的指标权重和各指标等级阈值作为输入,计算云数字特征值,采用正向正态云发生器,建立模板云和待识别云模型,计算两者之间的隶属度,根据最大隶属度原则辨识车站内各服务设施的行人拥挤状态,最后输出各服务设施的拥挤等级辨识结果。以宁波市鼓楼站为实证对象,对辨识结果进行实证分析。结果表明:采用四级行人拥挤状态划分方法合理可行。     

基于有限混合零截尾事故预测模型的事故多发段判别方法

为了准确判别事故多发段,有针对性地提出安全应对措施以提升道路交通的安全水平,针对零值缺失交通事故数据并考虑其异质性特点,在单零截尾负二项(ZTNB)模型的基础上建立有限混合零截尾事故预测模型(FMZTNB)。应用R软件对单零截尾负二项模型中的参数进行估计,采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法(MCMC)对FMZTNB预测模型参数进行求解,并采用Gelman-Rubin收敛统计量对抽样结果进行检查。选择事故风险水平分别为低、中和高的9个路段,分别用2种模型对交通事故次数进行预测。综合观测到的事故次数和相应的事故预测模型结果,采用经验贝叶斯方法对事故相对多发段进行判别。最后采用事故次数一致性检验、判别点段一致性检验和排序一致性检验3种检验方式对判别结果对比分析。结果表明:基于事故率的事故相对多发段判别方法存在较大的不一致性,基于零截尾负二项预测模型的路段事故相对多发判别结果明显优于基于传统负二项预测模型的结果。整体上,基于有限混合零截尾事故预测模型的事故相对多发路段的判别结果高于基于单零截尾负二项分布模型的判别结果。     

城市道路交通承载力研究综述

多年来，广泛的应用场景和领域使交通承载力的基础理论和量化研究方法等成为学术界的热点研究问题。作为城市交通可持续发展的重要指标，交通承载力向上与城市交通规划，向下与机动车需求管理融合，可以得到多个延伸的科研选题。在特定的时空网络中，一定的资源和环境约束条件下，城市道路交通承载力就是道路网络或基础设施现有或未来的承载状态，即交通资源达到最优配置、交通环境稳定时，道路交通设施单元或系统的承载能力或阈值。本文通过系统梳理城市道路交通承载力的国内外研究现状，从基础理论、量化研究方法和实践应用这3方面提出存在问题和发展建议。现有城市道路交通承载力研究存在理论体系不完善，评价量化方法有效性难以保证，评价指标选取缺少标准化，复杂系统承载力缺乏综合的内外部耦合协调分析，以及应用技术方法落后等问题。首先，未来可以建立较完善的交通承载力理论体系；其次，标准化评价指标，建立有效评价模型和耦合协调模型，研究交通系统内外部的耦合协调机制，提出协同优化策略；最后，改进应用技术方法，拓展自身及交叉领域应用。为城市道路交通承载力研究提供理论保障，为促进我国交通可持续文明发展建设进程提供有力支撑。     

成昆铁路矮塔斜拉桥索梁锚固区模型试验研究北大核心

为研究铁路矮塔斜拉桥索梁锚固区的受力形式,以成昆铁路金沙江大桥为工程背景,针对该桥采用的新型梁顶混凝土锚固构造,通过缩尺模型试验研究其在不同荷载下的应力分布和开裂特征。结果表明:在斜拉桥成桥恒载索力作用以及最不利荷载组合索力作用下,C7锚固块更容易发生破坏,将其作为试验构件开展缩尺模型试验,发现锚固块在不同张拉荷载作用下张拉至设计索力的过程中,应变增幅基本上线性增加,卸载后同样呈线性减小,说明混凝土受力处在线弹性阶段,且应力在规范要求范围内。在试验荷载加载至140%设计索力时,锚固块前端倒角位置开始出现细小裂纹且随荷载的增加不断开展。当荷载卸载至0时,之前出现的裂缝随荷载的减小逐渐闭合,宽度肉眼不可见,表明该构造能够满足正常使用要求且具备足够的安全储备。     

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.     

A multiobjective land development optimization model: the case of New Castle County,Delaware

This paper develops a multiobjective optimization model to consider transportation impacts of the future development of land. The output of the model is the best location and type of land use that has minimal negative transportation effects and uses the maximum available public transportation infrastructure. It provides tools for both planners and transportation engineers and enables them to consider different scenarios of possible policies and land development. Since multiple objectives and their nonlinear structures are considered, the model is solved using mixed integer nonlinear programming. The final results are shown in both tabular and graphical format. The effectiveness of the model is applied to the northern part of New Castle County, Delaware. The results show that the model successfully finds the best locations for both residential and commercial land uses in order to meet several criteria discussed in the paper.     

Vehicle response-based track geometry assessment using multi-body simulation

The assessment of the geometry of railway tracks is an indispensable requirement for safe rail traffic. Defects which represent a risk for the safety of the train have to be identified and the necessary measures taken. According to current standards, amplitude thresholds are applied to the track geometry parameters measured by recording cars. This geometry-based assessment has proved its value but suffers from the low correlation between the geometry parameters and the vehicle reactions. Experience shows that some defects leading to critical vehicle reactions are underestimated by this approach. The use of vehicle responses in the track geometry assessment process allows identifying critical defects and improving the maintenance operations. This work presents a vehicle response-based assessment method using multi-body simulation. The choice of the relevant operation conditions and the estimation of the simulation uncertainty are outlined. The defects are identified from exceedances of track geometry and vehicle response parameters. They are then classified using clustering methods and the correlation with vehicle response is analysed. The use of vehicle responses allows the detection of critical defects which are not identified from geometry parameters.     

郑万高铁隧道大型机械化施工支护优化

为解决郑万高铁大断面隧道建造过程中初期支护、二次衬砌、超前支护等支护结构安全储备较大、支护不经济的问题,以郑万高铁湖北段大断面隧道工程为依托,基于通用设计图A开展支护结构应力应变现场测试,对测试数据进行分析,并据此提出支护参数优化方案。采用现场实测和荷载-结构有限元方法对优化方案进行检算,最终确定优化设计图B,并进行现场应用。结果表明： 支护结构整体处于安全状态,优化方案合理可行。该支护优化方案不仅可以有效保证大断面隧道的安全性和稳定性,而且能降低成本,提高材料利用率,减少现场作业人员的劳动量。